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Abstract

Bayes' Theorem represents a fundamental principle in probability and statistics. It describes how to update the probability of a hypothesis based on new evidence. It provides a mathematical rule for reversing conditional probabilities, allowing us to determine the probability of a cause given an observed effect. Bayes' Theorem is also considered one of the key tools in machine learning applications. This study uses Bayes' Theorem to determine the probability of a team's loss and the percentage responsibility of the head coach and fitness coach. Its importance lies in developing a probabilistic model to reveal the likelihood of defeat and the proportional responsibility of each coach. The research sample includes 10 football experts and coaches from clubs and institutions in Basrah. A questionnaire was used to gather expert opinions on the estimated contribution of four roles (head coach, fitness coach, goalkeeping coach, and psychological consultant) and the potential error rate for each. The data were analyzed using Bayes' Theorem to calculate the probability of team loss and the responsibility percentage of the coaching staff. The study concludes that the probability of team loss is estimated at 13.65%, and the head coach (58.60%) and the fitness coach (38.46%) are mainly responsible for this loss. The researchers recommend that responsibility be distributed among all members of the coaching staff rather than attributed to a single individual, and this achieves one of the sustainable development goals of the United Nations in Iraq which is (Quality Education).

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Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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